Monday Night NFL Stone-Cold Lock 12/28/09

By DARREN BONTRAGER, FreshSportsDaily.com Betting Guru



OddsMaker.com Line - Vikings -7½ @ Bears

Monday night's NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears is the last football game of this decade and possibly the last game I will handicap for FSD.com, especially if tonight's pick doesn't come through. Big smiles! On to the analysis:

• The Vikings may be in the midst of the late-season Favre-ian tailspin that we have come so accustomed to seeing in the past few years. Favre led the Vikings to a 10-1 start by throwing 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, but the 40-year-old has had three TDs and four interceptions in the three games since.


• Both of the Vikings’ recent losses have come away from the Metrodome, and they’re 1-7 at Soldier Field since 2001, including last season’s 48-41 defeat. Favre is 13-3 all-time in Chicago, but has lost in two of his last three trips there.


• Chicago gave up four touchdowns through the air in last week’s 31-7 loss in Baltimore, its eighth defeat in 10 games.


• If Vikings' receiver Percy Harvin has recovered from migraine headaches, Favre will have back his best big-play threat, with all apologies to Adrian Peterson. Harvin had a career-best 101 yards and a touchdown in last month’s 36-10 win over the Bears.

My recommendation is to take Minnesota and lay the 7½ points. Chicago is a team is disarray and the players have given up on trying to save Lovie Smith's job. The Vikings have had their problems of late as well, but are clearly the superior team and should handle the Bears rather easily, outdoors or not, on the road or not.



The Pick - Minnesota Vikings 29 Chicago Bears 10

NFL Stone-Cold Locks 12/26/09

By DARREN BONTRAGER, FreshSportsDaily.com Betting Guru



Management has informed me in no uncertain terms that my ass is on the line this week after my horrible play of recommending the Tennessee Titans on Christmas Day. Apparently that pick lost some people some cash. While I tried to explain that sports betting is not an exact science and that I cannot possibly go 4-0 every week, it seems not to matter to certain individuals.



On to Sunday's picks (Confidence ranks are out of a possible 4 smiley faces):

• Take Kansas City +13.5 @ Cincinnati ☺☺☺  This one is a gut-pick and Lord knows I got the gut. I'm wondering if the Bengals will have anything left after what happened with Chris Henry and the subsequent tough loss to San Diego. Coming off three straight home losses, Kansas City obviously is not a very good football team. However, I happen to have inside information that one of the Chiefs players banged a slump-buster at the team hotel last night. That just might be what this squad needs to pull one out, no pun intended.
  
  The Pick - Kansas City Chiefs 24 Cincinnati Bengals 22

• Take St. Louis +14.5 @ Arizona ☺☺½  St. Louis gave me love last week and even came close to pulling out a victory, so I'm sticking with them. If you throw out being boat-raced by Tennessee in Week 14, their last 5 games have been decided by an average of only 6.8 points. Arizona is a good home team, but I'm expecting a bit of a Cardinal letdown after last week's clinching of the NFC West.
  
  The Pick - St. Louis Rams 20 Arizona Cardinals 30

Good luck with your bets, and enjoy your NFL Sunday!

*This information is for entertainment purposes only.

NFL Christmas Day Stone-Cold Lock

By DARREN BONTRAGER, FreshSportsDaily.com Betting Guru



Last Week's Picks: 2-2

San Diego Chargers -3 at Tennessee Titans

The Pick: Take Tennessee +3



The Christmas Day NFL match up they're giving us this year feels like a playoff game. This is a nice game...a really nice game - if you have the NFL Network. If not, then please trudge your ass through the snow to the bar that spent the money for a satellite dish. Hopefully you can find one that's open Christmas night. Anyone reading this blog is definitely spending Christmas alone, so it's not like your "family" will be angry that you spent Christmas at the bar drunk out of your mind, yelling at the television while watching the game you dropped twenty bucks on. On to the analysis...

• The Chargers have won nine straight. They're bound to lose.


• Two years ago, the Chargers won in overtime at Tennessee in a very rough game. Several players were hurt, and four players were fined. These types of rivalries tend to produce close, fairly low-scoring games.


• The Titans have lost two starting defenders to season-ending injuries - linebacker and team leader in tackles Keith Bulluck and linebacker David Thornton. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates might rip up that depleted Titan linebacking core. However...


• San Diego has to travel to Tennessee on a short week after a big win against Cincinnati. I smell a letdown. Or is that my feet? I really should shower more often.

When you take these factors, the advice from my magic 8-ball, and the voices in my head into consideration, I say take the 3 points and Tennessee. And when you're at the bar, remember "beer before hard, you're in the yard...hard before beer, you're in the clear."



*This information is for entertainment purposes only

Monday Night NFL Pick 12/21/09

By DARREN BONTRAGER, FreshSportsDaily.com Betting Guru

I hate picking NFC East games. Always have, always will. So here we go, a Monday night NFC East battle between the Giants and the Redskins. Vegas has the point spread set-up for a screw on both sides. Meaning, the final score will probably be a three point difference. This will assure that the wolves take everybody's money on this one. Hey, it's almost Christmas. Bookies have families too.



My professional advice is to NOT bet on this game. Stay away. But, if you're a degenerate gambler and you need the juice bad we say take the Giants and lay the 3 points. Maybe you'll get lucky and the Giants will win by four. It may be a risky proposition not to take the home dog 'Skins since New York has been far from world-beaters lately. However, I can never recommend betting on the Redskins under any circumstances and be able to sleep at night.

My Pick - New York Giants 23  Washington Redskins 20

NFL Sunday Stone-Cold Lock 12/20/09

By DARREN BONTRAGER, FreshSportsDaily.com Betting Guru

For my Sunday pick I'm going out on a limb - a very, very skinny limb that may just break under the considerable girth of my ass which is plastered to this chair 24/7.



There are some HUGE spreads out there this week. The vast majority of the money is being laid down on big favorites and Vegas is scrambling to get some of that money bet on the 'dogs by offering these ridiculous lines. A 14 point spread in the NFL is practically unheard of, even for the crappiest of teams.



With that being said, the St. Louis Rams are a 14 point home dog going into their game against the Houston Texans. I recommend taking the Rams and the points. Houston is being given entirely too much credit here and St. Louis is not as bad as this spread might suggest.



However, in the spirit of full disclosure, I must cop to the fact that my picks are 0-2 this week. Maybe betting against me is the safer way to go. That is why it's called gambling, people. Best of lucks with your picks!

NFL Saturday Pick 12/19/09

By DARREN BONTRAGER, FreshSportsDaily.com Betting Guru

Take the Saints and lay the 8 points. Period. If you can look past Dallas' December record, don't believe in statistics or making intelligent and informed decisions, or if you are from Texas, then please by all means waste your money by betting on the Cowboys.



My Pick - Dallas Cowboys 17  New Orleans Saints 32

NFL Thursday Pick 12/17/09

By DARREN BONTRAGER, FreshSportsDaily.com Betting Guru

I'm waiting for the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints to finally lose a game (because I'm a glass-half-empty-type guy) and this Thursday I might see the first one to go down as the Colts travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars.



Jacksonville is a consensus 3-point home dog. I usually like taking the points for a home team unless it’s Cleveland or Detroit. Jacksonville is a desperate team battling for a Wild Card berth. Indy has no real reason to win this game other than pride and to stay sharp.



And despite the reports that Indy won’t rest it’s starters, if Peyton Manning gets anywhere near an ugly sack situation or even a hangnail – they’ll sit him. With that being said:



My Pick – Jacksonville Jaguars 24  Indianapolis Colts 22